Market Letters

How High Is Too High?

I just got a call from one of my clients, “Hey, can you believe it? The stock market is up again today!” Yes, I can believe it and I’m excited about it. All too often over the last eight years, the market has gone up on horrible

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Is This the Great Melt-Up?

The London Financial Times defines a melt-up as a “dramatic and unexpected rise” in an asset class driven, as least in part, by a stampede of investors anxious not to miss out on the next move higher”, rather than an improvement in fundamentals. “Gains caused by melt-ups

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Is the Consumer Out of Bullets?

Sky-high stock valuations are a concern for everyone owning stock in today’s market. But how high is too high. The above chart gives one an excellent perspective of what high stock valuation means for the average investor. It depicts how many hours the average worker must work

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What’s the Plan Now?

Geo-political tensions between North Korea and the US were the main cause of stocks finishing in the red last week. The Dow had its worst weekly loss for the year down 1.1% while the S&P 500 had its second worst drop, down 1.4%. The VIX, or the

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What Makes Winners Different?

I have been a futures trader for 48 years. For thirty years I traded as an independent “pit” trader on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In my opinion, DISCIPLINE is the number one characteristic of a successful trader at all levels. Today, I manage Worldwide

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A Tale of Two Curves

An interesting adjustment in yield curves may be foretelling the next big move for the stock market. Short term rates are controlled by the Fed. For eight years the Democratic appointed Janet Yellen and the Fed Board have kept interest rates at crises levels of .25 %,

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Guys Driving Big Cars

In the fall of 1970 I was fresh out of college. Because I had worked as a “runner”, carrying orders from the phone clerks to the brokers in the “pits”, I had developed enough connections to get a job as a commodity broker. I was thrilled when

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P/E Ratio Suggests Caution

Of course, it may be different this time but let’s get some perspective. Many sophisticated investors know that equity valuations are high. But, just how high are they and what does that really mean to investors buying stocks right now? First, let’s imagine we are interested in

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Investors Have Got It Wrong

Investors, both retail and institutional, have portfolio diversification wrong and it could have disastrous results. With the best of intentions, today’s investor is mindfully building portfolios on the premise that diversifying capital across multiple asset classes will strengthen and shield it during adverse market conditions. It is

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